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land transfer income adjustment distribution system
Aquarter ,policy effect continues to show ,economy picks up limits to expand ceaselessly ,external demand situation to improve, economic growth basically returned to normal growth interval .
However ,the entity economy new point of growth has not been formed, economic growth momentum has not yet been achieved by the pull of the external policy to market internal drive conversion ,external demand picks up the foundation is not solid .
At the same time ,the structural contradiction and potential risks become more prominent ,the debt risk of local government continues to accumulate ,partial city price bubble rapid expansion ,input price pressures continue to increase ,economic growth in the second half facing increased uncertainty .
This year the economy may before tall hind low on the United States sub-loan crisis mechanism ,it very clear .In the real estate bubble growing situation, residents tend to real estate the unilateral revaluation anticipated as collateral to bank loans ,based on the same optimistic expectations banking also dare to large-scale made subprime loans ,results ,when the real estate market appears to reverse time, household cash flow fracture ,secondary housing loan number default ,personal debt risk to the financial system accumulate ,eventually led to a massive financial crisis .
Current local government financing status and American subprime mortgage crisis facing economic environment is not exactly the same, but the situation is similar to some, a common feature is the real estate market reversal will cut the borrower cash flow ,is different in the United States of America real estate bubble burst by the residents of family financial institutions to transfer risk ,and in Chinese local land transfer income substantially reduced by local government financial institutions to transfer risk .
In 2009 the new $9,burberry.6 loan ,how many money into all levels of local government financing platform ,air jordan pas cher,there is no precise data .But according to the count ,in the last 19 national trillion investment in fixed assets in urban area ,the central public investment of less than $1 ,the land transfer revenues for the $1.
42 in private investment ,energy shortage situation, the bank funds into the local investment and financing platform number should be in the minority ,supra.At present, the Hubei province is announced to the society 12 trillion investment plan, Chongqing also announced trillion investment plan ,be just unfolding around investment competition .
Once the real estate market reversal ,local government cash flow problems ,financial risk to banks ,there will be the currency of the credit and the real economy relay double contraction ,be not easily won the good situation will lose after having got it .
The debt risk of local government and the banking system financial risk problem is very outstanding ,must immediately begin to regulate local investment and financing behavior ,air jordan pas cher.In this case ,can be predicted by the local government to promote the investment growth rate will decline over the same period last year ,with the main economic data after the former high-low special factors ,economy moves this year may occur throughout the year before tall hind low .
The current interest rate is not desirable at present, the real estate bubble and the issue of local government debt at the same time, protruding shows is not accidental ,doudoune moncler.The land revenue and real estate prices closely tied together, as long as the real estate prices continued to rise ,huge amounts of land assignment income will be the place where massive government investment expenditure and debt repayment stable source ,michael kors.
Instead, once the real estate bubbles was Pierce, real estate prices ,moncler,land transfer income is greatly reduced ,moncler,and the bank debt chain will be broken, the local government ,banks ,developers will be damaged ,so are not willing to put real housing prices down, this is the real estate price adjustment is not the main reason for a long time under .
Since last year ,in a loose monetary policy, because the real economy has not yet been the emergence of new growth points ,air jordan,large amounts of funds into the real estate investment links and retail sectors, the first quarter of this year, the national real estate investment growth 35.
1% ,commercial housing sales growth of 35.8% area .In the part of city ,the real estate market unilateral revaluation anticipated evoked widespread speculation behavior ,individual first-tier cities new commodity housing sales price even more than 60% ,real estate prices soar ,abercormbie paris.
In this case ,the real estate bubble does bigger more ,abercrombie paris,true since residents living needs to accelerate by extrusion ,has become the economic development and social stability of the important hidden danger .
Real estate bubble and inflation expectation coexist, the traditional control method is the interest rate hike ,fundamentally change the cost-benefit structure of speculative funds ,but this approach is not desirable .
The substantial increase in interest rates may be a sharp tightening real estate developers cash flow ,reducing the supply of real estate ,and further strengthen the real estate market demand contradictions ,but also greatly improve the real estate developers and local government financing cost ,promote the credit risk to the financial system accumulate .
Recently, the State Council issued a series of real estate regulatory policy implementation ,including differential interest rate loans ,tax regulation ,affordable housing ,the government accountability inside a series of policy measures ,the real estate market speculation precision strike ,www.christianelouboutinfrance.com,this structural adjustment strategy is scientific .
However ,real estate issues and local government revenue and taxation systems problems are closely linked, not moving system ,not to change the mechanism can not fundamentally solve the problem ,should immediately start including the establishment of property tax and local tax source ,stable to issue local government bond ,reforming the institution of land requisition ,land transfer income adjustment distribution system ,reform package .
Otherwise ,if continue to be the real estate prices with local direct income, real estate market is difficult to maintain long-term healthy development .Inflation should not be overall tightening of one quarter of the resident consumption price rises 2.
2% ,a month by month to accelerate the trend ,in March rose by 2.4% ,in addition to Chilling Icy Rain and snow weather factors leading to fresh fruit and other food prices and the tail factor outside ,a very main reason is the international bulk commodity price shocks higher increased input bloating pressure ,these pressures are currently through the energy and raw materials ,factory prices of industrial products - final consumption goods this chain progressive conduction .
From the previous situation, because our ultimate consumer goods market has been oversupply ,this kind of cost drive transmission dynamics and the effect is also very difficult to say ,I most price factors but also from production enterprise interior to digest ,abercrombie.
In a crisis situation, monetary policy is interlinked ,inflation is not necessarily to raise interest rates to solve ,www.burberryssoldesmagasin.com.Overall tightening of demand pull inflation targeted, on imported inflation had little impact ,air jordan,respond poorly but will crunch folk investment .
Hot money is a three-pronged governance since the quarterly ,loan is still growing fast .In March, foreign exchange loans of $10100000000, and last month .As of the end of 3 ,foreign exchange loan to deposit ratio up to 191.
5% .The influx of hot money in China ,mainly to three kind of income :one is the United States and other western countries political pressure brought about by the anticipation of RMB appreciation ,franklin marshall;two is the domestic real estate market is expected to rise ;three is forced to raise interest rates brought about by the people currency arbitrage expectations .
The current external environment remains complex and austere task is arduous ,stabilize external demand ,exchange rate should be kept stable ;in the real estate market to resolutely crack down on investment behavior ,supra shoes,to squeeze the bubble, curb speculative expectation ;interest rate should remain stable ,reduce arbitrage space ,franklin and marshall.
At present, the real estate bubble ,the issue of local government debt ,inflation ,RMB appreciation problem interweaves together ,michael kors outlet,structural sex contradiction and potential risk highlights ,Moncler Sito Ufficiale,must consider as a whole, properly handle .
Next, should according to the new situation and continue to improve pertinence and flexibility ,with structural methods, avoid full rate and gross constrictive ,further consolidate the economic turnaround situation as soon as possible ,the launch of a new round of tax system reform in key areas ,increase national income adjustment strength ,accelerate breed mainly by consumer guide ( ,) point of growth .
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1% over the same period ,a record high of three years ,raw materials ,fuel ,power purchase prices rose 8.9% ,from another angle to reflect the cost of industrial production more and more pressure . |
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